The affordability index, which takes into account median income, median home price, and mortgage rates, has been bouncing around in the 180 to 200 range since the beginning of this year – the highest reading since the index was first used in 1971.
Let’s consider the situation in which a family earns $60,000, which is about the national average. They are renting at $1000 per month. They are considering buying a home that requires them to take out a mortgage of $170,000, which would be fairly close to the current national median home price.
At the current rate of 4.8 percent on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, the monthly mortgage payment would be …(drum roll) … $891 per month. That’s not all. A measurable portion of the monthly mortgage payment is actually goes towards principal reduction on the loan balance, which in essence is a forced-disciplined savings imposed on the home buyer.
That’s still not all. A fixed rate mortgage means the monthly payment is fixed and will not rise for the term of the mortgage. In this example, a person theoretically could be paying $891 in mortgage in the year 2041. What would be the cost of living at that time? Food price? Gasoline price? Also rent?
If rent was to rise by 3 percent a year, starting with the base $1000, the monthly rent will be $1344 in 10 years, $1806 in 20 years, and $2427 in 30 years. If rent was to rise by 5 percent, then it goes to $1628 in 10 years, $2526 in 20 years, and $4321 in 30 years. If monetary policy were to get of control, with too much money printing and inflation rose by 10 percent per year, then the rent becomes $2593 in 10 years, $6727 in 20 years, and $17,444 per month in 30 years. Many economists are expecting 3% to 5% annual rent growth over the next two years based on recent falling trends in apartment vacancy rates.
When rents rise, there is also a tendency for home prices to rise. If home values were to rise 5 percent (under rent growth assumption of the same) then the home value would rise to $178,500, translating into a gain of $8,500 in housing equity in the first year. Subsequent cumulative gains over several years would be sizable, if the yearly 5 percent increases could be sustained. Nationally the annual average home price increases have been at around 4 to 6 percent each year. Even if by some strange event home value was not to increase one cent over the next 30 years, the home would be owned free-and-clear by the 30th year. (Or much sooner if the family makes additional principal payments).
